广东沿海经济带海洋资源-环境-经济系统承载力时空耦合研究

Coupled spatial-temporal coordination among marine resources environment and economic system carrying capacity in Guangdong Coastal Economic Belt

中文关键词:  海洋复合系统  海洋承载力  状态空间模型  时空耦合  广东沿海经济带

英文关键词:marine composite system  marine carrying capacity  state-space models  coupled spatial-temporal coordination  Guangdong Coastal Economic Belt

中文摘要:

      推动海洋资源-环境-经济系统协调联动是提升沿海地区海洋承载力的必要途径，也是建设海洋强国的重要议题。基于海洋资源-环境-经济系统承载力评价指标体系，运用极差非零标准化、熵值法、状态空间模型以及耦合协调度函数模型， 对 2008—2018 年广东沿海经济带海洋资源-环境-经济系统承载力时空耦合特征进行比较分析。结果表明：广东沿海经济带海洋资源-环境-经济系统综合承载力指数在时序上呈波动下降态势。其中，海洋经济系统承载力水平较高且主导效应明显，相反，海洋资源系统、环境系统承载力水平相对较低，长期处于满载状态。各地市承载力水平空间差异较大，粤西沿海地区 的湛江、阳江综合承载力水平最高，粤东沿海地区的潮州、揭阳综合承载力水平最低。从耦合协调度时序变化来看，耦合度、协调度呈波动上升态势，表明海洋资源-环境-经济系统内部相互作用及各子系统间发展的同步性有所强化；耦合协调类型空间差异显著，以高耦合、高协调类型为主，耦合协调度较高的区域主要集中在粤西沿海的阳江、湛江等地区，东莞、潮州等地区为低值区。

英文摘要:

      Promoting the coordination and linkage of marine resources, environment and economic system is a necessary way to improve the marine carrying capacity of coastal areas, and also a key issue in building the maritime power. Based on the carrying capacity evaluation index system, this paper analyzed coupled spatio -temporal coordination among marine resources, environment and economic system carrying capacity in Guangdong Coastal Economic Belt from 2008 to 2018, by using the non-zero standardization, entropy method, state-space models and the coupled coordination degree function model. The results showed that: the comprehensive carrying capacity index of marine system sustains the fluctuated downward trend. Among them, the carrying capacity level of marine economic system was high and the dominating effect was obvious. On the contrary, the carrying capacity of marine resources and environmental system were relatively low, with a full load state for a long time. The spatial differences among regions were large, with the highest comprehensive carrying capacity of Zhanjiang and Yangjiang in the west coastal areas of Guangdong Province, and the lowest in Chaozhou and Jieyang in the east coastal areas. From the perspective of time series characteristics, the coupled coordination degree index implied increased interaction and synchronized development among the three carrying capacity subsystems. The spatial differences of coupled coordination types were significant, the high coupled coordination degree were mainly concentrated in Yangjiang and Zhanjiang along the coast of western Guangdong Province, while Dongguan, Chaozhou were low-value areas.