黄河口湿地潜在溢油污染生态风险评估

Ecological risk assessment of potential oil spill pollution in the Yellow River Estuary wetland

中文关键词:  黄河口  溢油  生态风险  危害后果  风险矩阵

英文关键词:the Yellow River estuary  oil spill  ecological risk  hazard consequence  risk matrix

中文摘要:

      黄河口有着我国典型的新生湿地生态系统，生态环境非常脆弱，极易受到陆源和海洋污染事故的影响。本文针对黄河口附近海上油田的开发和运输带来的潜在溢油风险，结合溢油污染概率模型以及河口的生态脆弱性，对黄河口湿地潜在溢油污染风险进行评估。在河口水动力模拟的基础上，采用随机情景模拟法选取300种风和潮流组合作为溢油模拟的强迫条件，分别模拟溢油后72小时和720小时的污染结果，并统计黄河口湿地受溢油污染影响的最大概率和最短时间，采用环境敏感指数表征湿地对溢油污染的敏感程度、危害后果指数量化表征其危害程度及风险矩阵量化风险高低。结果表明黄河口国家公园受潜在溢油污染概率较大，危害后果指数值为29，处于较高危害等级，属于中风险区；河口岸线受潜在溢油污染概率较小，危害后果指数值均小于1，溢油危害后果低，属于低风险区。

英文摘要:

      The Yellow River estuary has a typical newborn wetland ecosystem in China with a very fragile environment, that is highly vulnerable to terrestrial and marine pollution incidents. Based on the potential oil spill risk caused by the development and transportation of offshore oil fields near the Yellow River estuary, this study evaluates the potential oil spill pollution risk of the estuary wetland by combining the oil spill probability model and the ecological vulnerability of the estuary. Using estuarine hydrodynamic simulation, 300 combinations of wind and tide are selected as forcing conditions for oil spill simulation using stochastic scenario simulation method. The results of oil spill over 72 hours and 720 hours are simulated respectively, and then calculated the maximum reach probability and minimum reach time for the Yellow River estuary wetland. The environmental sensitivity index is used to evaluate the wetland's sensitivity to oil spill pollution, the hazard consequence index is used to quantify the hazard degree and the risk matrix was used to quantify the risk level. The results show that the Yellow River Estuary National Park has a high probability of being polluted by potential oil spill, with a hazard consequence index value of 29 indicating a higher hazard level and a medium risk area. The probability of being polluted by potential oil spill along the estuary shoreline is lower, and the value of hazard consequence index is less than 1, which is a low risk area.