基于Bootstrap-DEA模型的中国海洋经济效率空间演化及影响因素分析

Spatial evolution of marine economic efficiency and its influential factors in China based on Bootstrap-DEA model

中文关键词:  Bootstrap-DEA  海洋经济效率  时空演化格局  三大海洋经济圈

英文关键词:Bootstrap-DEA  marine economic efficiency  spatial-temporal evolution  three major marine economic circles

中文摘要:

      本文基于 2006－2020年沿海 11个省区市的面板数据，借助 Bootstrap-DEA 综合模型测算我国海洋经济效率，采用标准差椭圆法和平均中心，定量刻画了其空间格局演化特征，分别考察了我国沿海省区市整体和三大海洋经济圈内部演化格局特征，使用 Tobit 模型探究海洋经济效率的影响因素。结果表明：（1） 基于Bootstrap-DEA综合模型纠偏后的海洋经济效率较低，但准确性更高；此外海洋经济效率具有明显的阶段性特征，总体上呈现先上升后下降的趋势。（2） 从沿海11个省区市整体标准差椭圆分布情况和重心转移轨迹来看，2006－2010年呈现“东北-西南”空间格局，2010－2020年呈现“西南-东北”分布格局；观察期内三大海洋经济圈标准差椭圆走势和重心转移趋势分别为：北部海洋经济圈走势呈现“东北-西南”格局，东部海洋经济圈走势呈现“南-北”格局，南部海洋经济圈走势呈现“东北-西南-东北”格局。各省市的发展特点、政策格局、基础建设与演化格局息息相关。（3） 对海洋经济效率的影响因素分析可得，陆域经济发展水平、海洋科研投入强度以及海洋环境规制强度对我国海洋经济效率产生显著的正向促进作用，与相关研究成果结论一致。

英文摘要:

      Based on Panel data of 11 coastal provinces and cities from 2006 to 2019,by bootstrap dea comprehensive model to measure China's marine economic efficiency, then Standard Deviation Ellipses and Barycentric Coordinates Method are applied to projecting and visualizing the evolution of spatial pattern of marine economic efficiency in China and three major marine economic circles. Finally, we analyze the important factors which affect the evolution of spatial pattern and its mechanisms. Results are shown as follows: 1) Compared with the traditional DEA model, marine economic efficiency modified by Bootstrap-DEA model is lower but higher accuracy. Overall, Marine Economic efficiency has obvious stage characteristics that has trend of first increasing and then decreasing. 2) Viewed from rotation angle of the Standard Deviational Ellipses and the track of the center of gravity, the spatial pattern of "Northeast Southwest" was presented from 2006 to 2010, and the spatial pattern of "Southwest Northeast" was presented from 2010 to 2019. Meanwhile, the trend of the northern marine shows a "northeast southwest" pattern, the eastern marine shows a "south north" pattern, and the southern marine shows a "northeast southwest northeast" pattern. 3) The analysis of the influencing factors on the efficiency of the marine economy shows that the development level of land economy, the intensity of marine scientific research investment, and marine environmental regulations have a significant positive promoting effect on the efficiency of China's marine economy, which is consistent with the conclusions of relevant research results.