海洋船舶碰撞溢油环境影响评估技术与应用

Environmental impact assessment technology and application for collision and oil spill of marine ships

中文关键词:  船舶碰撞  随机情景  溢油预测  环境影响  污染概率

英文关键词:ship collision  random scenes  oil spill prediction  environmental impact  pollution probability

中文摘要:

      近年来随着全球贸易和海洋经济的快速发展，船舶碰撞等突发事故数量也与日俱增，是造成海洋环境污染的重要来源，但是单一情景的船舶事故海面溢油漂移扩散模拟受限于特定海洋环境要素的影响，只能表明当前设定溢油泄漏时未来72 h事故海面溢油的漂移扩散特征，对特定的溢油事故应急处置具有重要指导意义，但由于情景条件的特殊单一无法真实体现溢油事故的环境影响危害后果及风险。为了更全面地了解溢油事故可能产生的环境影响，参照《水上溢油环境风险评估技术导则》(JT/T 1143-2017） 风险评价要求，采用基于拉格朗日理论的随机情景“油粒子”漂移预测模拟统计方法，对溢油事故开展3年内共计300个随机时刻72 h时长的漂移扩散模拟计算，结合GIS网格化分析技术计算船舶碰撞溢油对周围海洋环境的污染概率、敏感资源污染可能发生概率和最快到达时间等危害风险指数。典型案例应用分析表明，通过不少于300次的随机溢油情景创建模拟和地理空间叠加统计分析，能够更加全面客观地体现溢油事故漂移扩散的不确定性，通过多次随机情景的集合预测和地理空间叠加统计分析更加合理地表征溢油可能的影响范围及污染概率等，与传统的典型不利情景预测分析相比，能够更加准确地评估海洋环境及敏感资源区受到污染的概率、可能范围、污染时间等关键重要信息，对区域海洋环境保护和应急资源配置、能力建设具有重要的指导意义，同时也为船舶溢油事故污染防治提供更科学有效的技术支持。

英文摘要:

      In recent years, the rapid development of global trade and marine economy is accompanied with increasing ship collisions and other sudden accidents, which is major source of marine environmental pollution. A single scene of ship accident oil spill drift-diffusion simulation is limited by the influence of specific Marine environment elements, which only shows the future 72 hours oil spill drift-diffusion characteristics of the current set oil spill accident. Though it has important guiding significance for specific oil spill accident emergency disposal, the scene conditions of special single cannot reflect oil spill environmental risk. To obtain a more comprehensive understanding of the possible environmental impact of oil spill accidents, our study uses the random scenario "oil particles" drift prediction simulation statistics method to calculate the probability of ship collision oil spill pollution, sensitive resources pollution probability hazard risk index and the fastest arrival time, based on Lagrangian theory for 3 years, a total of 300 random time 72 hours of drift-diffusion simulation calculation, combining GIS grid analysis technology, in accordance with the risk assessment requirements of water oil spill environmental risk assessment guidelines (JT / T 1143-2017). Application analysis of this typical case shows that, through simulation and geospatial superposition statistical analysis of random oil spill scenarios no less than 300 times, Can more comprehensively and objectively reflect the uncertainty of the drift and diffusion of oil spill accidents, Through the ensemble prediction of multiple random scenarios and the statistical analysis of geospatial superposition, the possible influence range and pollution probability of oil spill are more reasonably characterized, With the traditional prediction analysis of typical adverse scenarios, Can more accurately assess the probability, possible extent of pollution and the time of pollution in the Marine environment and sensitive resource areas. It is of great significance to regional marine environmental protection, emergency resource allocation and capacity building. It also provides further scientific and effective technical support for the prevention and control of ship oil spill accident pollution.