长江三角洲地区海岸带韧性时空特征及驱动因子分析

Spatio-temporal characterization of coastal resilience in the Yangtze River Delta region and analysis of driving factors

中文关键词:  海岸带韧性  DPSIR模型  驱动因素  长江三角洲

英文关键词:coastal resilience  DPSIR  driving factors  Yangtze River Delta

中文摘要:

      海岸带作为海、陆、气交互影响和社会经济快速发展的复杂地球关键带，在高强度人类活动和全球气候变化影响下，多源的不确定风险快速增加。将韧性理论引入海岸带可持续发展研究能够有效缓解风险扰动与冲击并最大程度减少负面影响，是实现海岸带综合管理的必然要求。基于 DPSIR模型构建海岸带韧性评估框架，从像元和行政区划多角度分析了长三角海岸带韧性的时空演化特征，并运用地理探测器模型探测了海岸带韧性变化的驱动因素。结果表明：（1） 长三角海岸带韧性呈现不断上升趋势，由低等级转变为中等等级，各子系统指数变化程度不同，除响应子系统外均呈现上升趋势；（2） 长三角海岸带韧性高值区主要集中于上海市、浙江省北部的宁波市，低值区主要集中于南通市、盐城市和连云港市，省 （直辖市）的海岸带韧性位序格局基本保持不变，均呈现为上海市＞浙江省＞江苏省；（3） 长三角海岸带韧性变化强度以三次变化为主，变化剧烈区域集中于上海市、温州市、宁波市、台州市，海岸带韧性变化速率表现为负增长后回升和速率不断加快两种模式；（4） 长三角海岸带韧性发展的主导因素为产业结构高级化和政府规制水平，科学技术发展水平和城镇化水平是长三角海岸带韧性变化的重要因素，人类因素对海岸带韧性变化的重要性不断提升。

英文摘要:

      The coastal zones, as a complex earth critical part with the interactive influence of sea, land and air, as well as rapid socioeconomic development, is experiencing a rapid increase in uncertain risks from multiple sources under the influence of high intensity human activities and global climate change. Introducing the resilience theory into the study of sustainable development of coastal zones can effectively alleviate risk disturbance and reduce negative impact, which contributes to integrated coastal management. Based on the DPSIR model, we constructed a coastal resilience assessment framework to analyze the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of coastal resilience in the Yangtze River Delta from multiple perspectives of image metrics and administrative divisions, and used the geographic detectors to detect the driving factors of coastal resilience changes. Our findings are as follows: (1) the coast of the Yangtze River Delta shows a rising trend , from a low level to a medium level. The indexes of each subsystem change to different degrees, and all except the response subsystem show an upward trend . (2) The high-value areas of coastal resilience in the Yangtze River Delta are mainly concentrated in Shanghai and Ningbo, while the low-value areas are mainly concentrated in Nantong, Yancheng, and Lianyungang. The ranking order of coastal resilience among provinces (municipalities) remains unchanged, showing Shanghai > Zhejiang > Jiangsu. (3) The change intensity of coastal resilience in the Yangtze River Delta is mainly three-fold, with the areas of intense change concentrated in Shanghai, Wenzhou, Ningbo, and Taizhou. The change rate of coastal resilience shows two modes: negative growth followed by recovery and the rate of continuous acceleration. (4) The dominant factors of coastal resilience in the Yangtze River Delta are industrial structure upgrading and government regulation level. Scientific and technological development level and urbanization level are also important in the change of coastal resilience in the Yangtze River Delta, followed by the increasing importance of human factors.