基于沿海城市准自然实验的自由贸易试验区建设对我国海洋经济发展推动研究

Research on Promoting Marine Economic Development in China Through the Construction of Free Trade Pilot Zones: A Quasi-Natural Experiment in Coastal Cities

中文关键词:  自由贸易试验区  海洋经济  多期DID  准自然实验

英文关键词:free trade pilot zone  marine economy  time-varying DID  quasi natural experiment

中文摘要:

      发展海洋经济是建设海洋强国的重点内容之一，自由贸易试验区建设可以为海洋经济更好发展提供新引擎。本文通过整理 2006－2021 年我国沿海 38 个地级及以上城市面板数据，基于自由贸易试验区建设的准自然实验，采用多期 DID方法检验自由贸易试验区建设对海洋经济发展的影响。研究结果表明：（1） 自由贸易试验区建设显著促进了我国海洋经济发展，该结论在经过平行趋势检验、安慰剂检验、贝肯分解检验、PSM－DID 回归等一系列稳健性检验后依旧成立；（2） 经济发展水平、海洋科技能力、涉海劳动投入、海洋固定资产投资和海洋经济政策等也是推动海洋经济发展的重要因素；（3） 异质性分析发现，相比于小城市和北方城市，自由贸易试验区对海洋经济发展的促进效应在大城市和南方城市中更加显著。研究结论为厘清自由贸易试验区建设与海洋经济发展的逻辑关联，探究如何进一步发展我国的海洋经济提供了证据与启示。

英文摘要:

      Developing the marine economy is a key component of building China into a maritime power, and the construction of free trade pilot zones can serve as a new driving force for its growth. This study compiles panel data from 38 prefecture-level and above coastal cities in China from 2006 to 2021 and, using a quasi-natural experiment approach, employs a time-varying DID method to assess the impact of free trade pilot zone construction on marine economy development. The findings indicate that: (1) the construction of free trade pilot zones has significantly promoted marine economy development, a conclusion that remains robust after a series of validity tests, including the parallel trend test, placebo test, Becken decomposition test, PSM-DID regression, etc; (2) economic development levels, marine scientific and technological capabilities, marine-related labor input, fixed assets investment in the marine sector, and marine economic policies are also important factors driving marine economic growth; (3) heterogeneity analysis reveals that, the positive impact of free trade pilot zones on marine economic development is more pronounced in large cities and southern cities, compared to small cities and northern cities. These findings provide empirical evidence and insights into the relationship between free trade pilot zone construction and marine economy development, offering guidance on strategies to further enhance China's marine economy.