海阳核电中国毛虾卷塞生物量时空变化及驱动因素分析

Spatiotemporal variations and driving factors analysis of Acetes chinensis biomass in Haiyang nuclear power plant

中文关键词:  中国毛虾  卷塞  相关因子  广义加性模型  广义加性混合模型

英文关键词:Acetes chinensis  convoluted plugs  correlation factors  generalized additive models  generalized additive mixed models

中文摘要:

      中国毛虾 （Acetes chinensis） 是威胁核电站冷源系统的主要致灾物种之一，由于在特定时段的大量聚集，已有造成核电站取水堵塞及反应堆紧急停堆的先例。本文基于海阳核电站 2021－2023 年间共 22 个月的卷塞监测数据，通过统计分析、广义加性模型 （GAM）和广义加性混合模型 （GAMM），研究中国毛虾暴发的规律及时间、环境等因子对中国毛虾卷塞生物量影响。研究结果表明，中国毛虾卷塞生物量最高峰出现在 4－6 月，且集中出现在夜间，尤其是 16∶00－20∶00时段；模型结果表明，月份、海水温度和潮差是影响中国毛虾卷塞生物量的显著驱动因子；而且相较于 GAM 考虑随机效应的GAMM 拟合结果更出色。本研究揭示了海阳核电中国毛虾卷塞生物量的时间动态变化及驱动机制，研究结果为后续海阳核电中国毛虾实时监测预警系统的构建提供数据支持，同时也为黄渤海其它核电站冷源安全管理措施制定和优化提供参考。

英文摘要:

      Acetes chinensis is one of the main disaster-causing species threatening the cooling source systems of nuclear power plants. Due to their massive aggregation during specific periods, there have been precedents of water intake blockages and reactor emergency shutdowns at nuclear power plants. Based on 22 months of trawl monitoring data from the Haiyang Nuclear Power Plant between 2021 and 2023, this study investigates the patterns of Acetes chinensis outbreaks and the influence of temporal and environmental factors on the trawl biomass of Acetes chinensis through statistical analysis, Generalized Additive Models (GAM), and Generalized Additive Mixed Models (GAMM). The results show that the peak trawl biomass of Acetes chinensis occurs from April to June, predominantly at night, especially during the 16:00–20:00 period. The modeling results indicate that month, seawater temperature, and tidal range are significant driving factors affecting the trawl biomass of Acetes chinensis. Moreover, the GAMM, which accounts for random effects, outperforms the GAM in terms of model fit. This study reveals the temporal dynamics and driving mechanisms of the trawl biomass of Acetes chinensis at the Haiyang Nuclear Power Plant. The findings provide data support for the subsequent development of a real-time monitoring and early warning system for Acetes chinensis at the Haiyang Nuclear Power Plant and also offer references for the formulation and optimization of cooling source safety management measures at other nuclear power plants in the Yellow and Bohai Seas.