台风灾害对海岸带城市经济韧性的影响研究

The impact of typhoon disasters on the economic resilience of coastal cities

中文关键词:  极端气候事件  台风灾害  城市经济韧性  海岸带城市  气候物理风险

英文关键词:extreme climate events  typhoon disasters  urban economic resilience  coastal cities  climate physical risk

中文摘要:

      台风作为典型的极端气候事件，对海岸带城市经济系统的稳定性与恢复能力产生了显著冲击。本文以 2001－2023年中国 54个海岸带城市为研究对象，系统探究台风灾害对海岸带城市经济韧性的影响效应与作用机制。研究发现，台风灾害显著降低了海岸带城市经济韧性，且该负面效应在东南部海洋经济圈、产业结构脆弱性较高、数字基础设施相对薄弱以及财政自给率较低的城市中更为显著。机制分析发现，台风灾害一方面通过物理破坏，直接削弱城市生产能力与公共服务保障能力；另一方面通过引发资源配置扭曲，间接侵蚀城市经济韧性。调节效应分析表明，提升政府科技支持力度、优化产业结构以及提高人力资本水平，有助于缓解台风灾害对海岸带城市经济韧性的负面冲击。本文的研究为推进海岸带防灾减灾体系建设和城市韧性提升提供了重要理论支撑。

英文摘要:

      Typhoons, as a typical extreme climate event, pose severe shocks to the stability and recovery of coastal economic systems. Focusing on 54 coastal cities in China from 2001 to 2023, this paper systematically investigates the impact effects and underlying mechanisms of typhoon disasters on urban economic resilience. Empirical findings reveal a significant negative impact of typhoon disasters on urban economic resilience. This negative effect is particularly pronounced in cities located in the Southeast Marine Economic Circle, as well as those characterized by high industrial structural vulnerability, relatively weak digital infrastructure, and low fiscal self-sufficiency rates. Mechanism analysis identifies two primary channels: physical destruction, which impairs production and public services, and resource misallocation, which crowds out productive investment. Furthermore, the moderating effect analysis suggests that enhancing government support for science and technology, optimizing industrial structure, and improving human capital levels can effectively mitigate the negative shocks of typhoon disasters on coastal urban economic resilience. This study contributes to providing a scientific basis for coastal disaster prevention, mitigation and resilience building.